For over a decade, SMS marketing has been the bedrock of mobile engagement. With open rates often cited above 95% and near-universal device compatibility, it seemed indestructible. Yet today, industry insiders are sounding the alarm: if current trends persist, SMS marketing may become obsolete by 2030.
Carrier overregulation, ballooning fees, and rigid content policies are increasingly squeezing marketers, especially small businesses. Meanwhile, richer, cheaper, and more flexible alternatives like RCS, WhatsApp, and push notifications are rapidly gaining ground. This article explores why SMS is under threat, what alternatives are emerging, and how businesses can future-proof their messaging strategy.
SMS offered instant access to consumers without relying on apps or data plans. It worked on every phone and reached users wherever they were. Businesses used it for promotions, alerts, two-factor authentication, and customer care. With engagement levels unmatched by email or social ads, SMS became the go-to channel for urgent communications.
According to Robokiller's 2023 report, Americans received 225 billion spam texts in 2022—a 157% increase from the previous year alone. In response, U.S. carriers introduced stricter regulations to mitigate abuse. These included content filtering, brand registration, and a crackdown on "unverified" message senders. While the intent was to restore trust, the execution has proven costly and complex for legitimate marketers.
Since 2023, SMS marketers have faced the full weight of carrier compliance requirements. The 10DLC (10-Digit Long Code) system mandates that all business messaging campaigns be registered and vetted. Unregistered messages now face massive penalties—up to $0.012 per SMS segment on T-Mobile as of December 2024—and are frequently blocked. Even registered campaigns have reported delays, unexpected rejections, and inconsistent filtering.
“In 2024, carriers began fining marketers up to $10,000—even for blocked messages never seen by users.” [T-Mobile A2P Code of Conduct, 2024]
To send messages via 10DLC, businesses must register their brand and use case through The Campaign Registry, paying upfront and monthly fees. Each SMS is then subject to per-message surcharges—typically between $0.002 and $0.003 for registered traffic across major U.S. carriers.
Because these fees are flat, small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs) pay proportionally more. Unlike enterprise senders, SMBs lack dedicated compliance teams and may only send a few thousand messages a month. For them, the registration burden and ongoing costs are significant.
Critics argue the changes are less about security and more about revenue. On Reddit's VOIP and marketing communities, professionals have described 10DLC as "regulatory capitalism," where carriers profit from systems designed to reduce abuse but end up penalizing everyone equally. The FCC has received public comments from nonprofits and advocacy groups noting the disproportionate impact on smaller organizations.
“For the first time, the value of SMS is being questioned by enterprises.” — Juniper Research, 2024
RCS (Rich Communication Services) upgrades SMS with images, branding, and interactive elements. It was initially limited by Apple’s refusal to support the protocol, but that changed in late 2024 when Apple announced RCS support in iOS 18. According to Juniper Research, Apple’s participation is expected to drive global RCS users past 2.1 billion by 2025. Early studies from Infobip and Google indicate that RCS messages can deliver 2x to 10x higher engagement than traditional SMS.
According to Meta's 2024 earnings report, WhatsApp Business saw a 41% increase in U.S. usage by mid-year. Facebook Messenger, Telegram, and Viber also expanded their business communication toolkits. These platforms offer richer messaging, global reach, and fewer restrictions. They also skip carrier fees entirely.
A 2025 Infobip report found that 30% of global brands now use three or more messaging channels. By diversifying, they mitigate risk and adapt to consumer preferences. Platforms like Twilio, Sinch, and MessageBird increasingly support fallback logic—e.g., defaulting to WhatsApp or email if SMS fails.
“In 2024, RCS volumes in North America surged 14× after Apple joined the protocol.” [Infobip Messaging Trends Report, 2025]
Carriers enforce "SHAFT" filters, banning content related to Sex, Hate, Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco, per CTIA guidelines. But filtering goes beyond SHAFT: texts with too many emojis, all caps, or blacklisted keywords can also be blocked. This creates a compliance gray area for marketers.
Even compliant messages can be blocked. Platforms like Twilio and Telnyx report growing cases of legitimate campaigns being throttled or filtered due to unclear violations. Carriers like Verizon and T-Mobile apply their own terms of service, which may go beyond federal TCPA or CTIA rules.
A misstep in campaign content or traffic pattern can result in steep fines. For example, T-Mobile's Messaging Code of Conduct allows for fines up to $10,000 for high-risk violations, even if the message never reaches the recipient. This raises the stakes for marketers in regulated industries.
“Complying with carrier rules no longer guarantees delivery—just lowers your risk of being blocked.”
Grand View Research projects the global A2P SMS market will grow to $89.2 billion by 2030. However, Juniper Research estimates a 20% decline in total SMS traffic volume over the next five years as costs rise and usage shifts to OTT and RCS.
Large enterprises are investing in multi-channel orchestration and compliance teams. Meanwhile, many SMBs report scaling back SMS use or abandoning it entirely due to rising costs and complexity. The result is an uneven playing field that favors scale.
Some experts believe SMS will persist as a high-trust, low-volume channel reserved for verification codes and alerts. Others foresee RCS and OTT platforms overtaking SMS entirely. Either way, the days of cheap, frictionless SMS marketing are over.
“SMS isn’t dying—it’s being suffocated by the very networks it helped build.”
If your brand sends A2P SMS via long codes, you must register with The Campaign Registry. Non-compliant traffic is now blocked or surcharged by all major U.S. carriers. Registration ensures lower fees, higher throughput, and a chance at consistent deliverability.
Invest in cross-channel platforms that support SMS, WhatsApp, RCS, and push notifications. Use fallback rules to reroute failed messages. Consider toll-free numbers or short codes if they better fit your volume or compliance profile.
Run A/B tests across channels to find the best mix. Monitor deliverability metrics and message engagement. Collect channel preferences during opt-in to avoid sending the wrong message on the wrong platform.
“If SMS dies on your watch, it won’t be because you didn’t warn your marketing team.”
SMS still delivers value. But its role is shrinking as costs rise and complexity increases. For SMBs, the barrier to entry may soon outweigh the ROI. For enterprises, SMS will remain a compliance-heavy channel reserved for urgent or transactional messaging.
Forward-thinking marketers will adapt by:
As the landscape evolves, one truth remains: success in messaging is about meeting your audience where they are—not where they used to be.